'Pakistan sees India as existential threat...': US military intelligence report warns of growing nuclear stockpile

The United States’ Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) has raised fresh concerns over Pakistan’s military posture, stating that the country views India as an existential threat and is committed to expanding its nuclear capabilities. In its annual threat assessment, the DIA revealed that Pakistan continues to acquire weapons of mass destruction-related materials from foreign sources while maintaining close military ties with China. The report underscores an accelerating arms trajectory that could significantly impact regional stability.

In its report, the DIA said during the next year, the Pakistani military’s top priorities are likely to remain cross-border skirmishes with regional neighbours, rising attacks by Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan and Baloch nationalist militants, counterterrorism efforts, and nuclear modernisation.

Pakistan regards India as an existential threat and will continue to pursue its military modernisation effort, including the development of battlefield nuclear weapons, to offset India’s conventional military advantage.

Pakistan primarily is a recipient of China’s economic and military largesse, and Pakistani forces conduct multiple combined military exercises every year with China’s PLA, including a new air exercise completed in November 2024.

Foreign materials and technology supporting Pakistan’s WMD programmes are very likely acquired primarily from suppliers in China, and sometimes are transshipped through Hong Kong, Singapore, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates, the DIA report said.

According to a report by Centre for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, as of 2024, Pakistan has approximately 170 warheads and continues to gradually expand and modernise their nuclear arsenal. This number exceeds the projection made by the DIA in 1999 that Pakistan would have 60-80 warheads by 2020. According to the current growth rate, the number of warheads is expected to reach 200 by 2025.

There is little public information on Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal as the Pakistani government has never publicly disclosed the size of its nuclear arsenal, making it more difficult for experts to estimate the arsenal’s size and composition compared to other nuclear-armed countries.

Pakistan keeps its nuclear warheads stored separately from its missiles and will only assemble one if it will be used. Unlike India, Pakistan has not declared a No First Use policy and instead has opted to emphasize smaller battlefield or ‘tactical’ nuclear weapons as a counter to India’s larger and superior conventional forces.