Morgan Stanley’s Upasana Chachra: Inflation to Stay Below 4% with Strong Crops, Low Oil Prices

In conversation with Siddharth Zarabi, Group Editor, Business Today, Upasana Chachra, Chief India Economist at Morgan Stanley, expresses cautious optimism on India’s inflation trajectory. With food inflation cooling significantly—thanks to strong rainfall last year and a promising start to this year’s monsoon—headline inflation is tracking below 3.5% so far in 2025. Chachra notes that both food and non-food price trends are supportive, with global commodity and oil prices remaining stable. She forecasts inflation to remain decisively below 4% through the year, aligning well with the RBI’s medium-term target, and anticipates further downside surprises in upcoming readings.