'US is not the victim...': GTRI founder says India fuels a hidden $40 billion American surplus

India isn’t bleeding the U.S. economy—it’s feeding it, says Ajay Srivastava, founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative, who argues that Washington’s deficit complaints ignore a hidden $40 billion American surplus.

In a pointed LinkedIn post, Srivastava dismantled the long-standing U.S. narrative of trade imbalance with India, cautioning New Delhi against conceding too much in ongoing free trade agreement (FTA) talks.

While the U.S. reported a $44.4 billion goods trade deficit with India in FY2025—fuel for political barbs from figures like former President Donald Trump—Srivastava said that framing is deeply misleading.

“When you factor in the full economic relationship, the U.S. isn’t running a deficit—it’s sitting on a $35–40 billion surplus,” he wrote.

Citing GTRI estimates, Srivastava outlined how the U.S. quietly nets $80–85 billion from India annually. Key contributors include over $25 billion from Indian students studying in American universities, $15–20 billion from Big Tech firms operating in India, $10–15 billion through American banks and consultancies, and another $15–20 billion via profits from Global Capability Centers (GCCs). Add to that earnings from pharma, licensing, entertainment, and defense, and the deficit flips into a net gain.

Srivastava warned that U.S. negotiators use the deficit narrative to push India into lowering tariffs and relaxing rules in areas like digital trade, IP, and government procurement—sectors where U.S. firms already dominate.

He urged Indian trade officials to “push back on inflated deficit claims” and demand “fair, reciprocal terms.” If the U.S. refuses to acknowledge its broader financial gains from India, Srivastava advised narrowing the talks strictly to trade.

“Negotiate from strength—not guilt,” he concluded.