RBI Monetary Policy Meeting: Gov Malhotra maintains India’s GDP growth projection for 2025-26 at 6.5%

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra, in the RBI monetary policy meeting announcements on Friday, projected India’s GDP growth rate for the year 2025-26 at 6.5 per cent. This is the same as the previous projection of 6.5 per cent in the April MPC. The RBI governor said that geopolitical tensions and weather vagaries pose headwinds to the growth. 

He said Q1 growth is expected at 6.5 per cent, Q2 at 6.7 per cent, Q3 at 6.6 per cent and Q4 at 6.3 per cent. This too remains unchanged from the previous estimates of 6.5 per cent growth for Q1, 6.7 per cent for Q2, 6.6 per cent for Q3 and 6.3 per cent for Q4.

"The risks are evenly balanced," said the RBI chief.

The domestic activity has demonstrated resilience so far in 2025-26, said the governor. Agriculture remains strong, industrial activity is gaining gradually, services sector is expected to maintain momentum, private consumption is healthy with a gradual rise in discretionary spending, rural demand is steady, urban demand is improving, investment activity is improving, said Governor Malhotra. The UK free trade deal, and the fast progress that is being made in our negotiations with other countries should provide a fillip to trade, he said. 

"Spillovers emanating from protracted geopolitical tensions and global trade and weather-related uncertainties pose downside risks to growth," he said. 

The Indian economy displays strength, stability and opportunity amid a changing global economic order, said RBI Governor Malhotra. “We are already growing at a very fast pace,” said the governor, further adding, "We are making all efforts to grow even faster in our vision of Viksit Bharat."